How to Win Over the Millennial Vote in the 2010 American Midterm Elections

By Maggie Palin

The 2008 Presidential Election saw an influx in the number of Millennial voters (voters born after 1982) getting involved in politics and voting at the polls. But how much of this will transfer into this year’s Midterm Elections, and how exactly will these voters decide which candidates and issues they want to support on the ballot. Analyzing the voting patterns of millennial voters has always been a specialty of mine—I conducted several papers and theses on the topic while in college. But further research demonstrates that these voters are constantly evolving, and it is important for campaigns to know how these voters think politically to win over their support now and in the future.

Internet killed the video star

Robert Putnam wrote in his book Bowling Alone that Americans were living in a “weak ties” nation, where they were becoming isolated from their communities and apathetic towards politics. The last few years has brought a resurgence of a “strong ties” nation among millennial voters, however, largely as a result of the growth of the Internet and social networking. Facebook, MySpace and other similar websites have connected people, especially the younger generations, in an unprecedented fashion that IMs, telephones and emails could never achieve. Most campaigns have picked up on this, and have created Facebook profiles for them to disseminate information to the voters and create a community of volunteers to rely upon for grassroots efforts. The Pew Research Center reported in its February 2010 study on millennials that one in three (32%) have posted a message of some type on a social network in the past 24 hours and more than half (56%) have sent an email during that same timeframe. These numbers only further the case that the Internet is the best tool for reaching out to Millennial voters and will continue to be so as time passes, as the study found that the older voters got, the less likely they were to use the Internet and social networking sites.

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity

Millennial voters tend to be much more socially liberal than older voters.  Just over half (52%) of them are pro-choice and 50% support gay marriage according to the same Pew study. The number of millennials who are pro-choice, however, is only slightly higher than that of older adults, as 48% of people between the ages of 30 and 64 are pro-choice.  MIllennials are more liberal with respect to their support for gay marriage, as only 43% of Generation X-ers (ages 30-49) and 32% of Baby Boomers (ages 50-64) support gay marriage. A possible explanation for the fact that millennials are more open to gay marriage is that two-thirds (65%)of them say they have at least one friend or family member who is gay.  Millennials are also much less religious overall, as only 37% of them actively participate in religious activities (including daily prayer) and one in three (31%) consider themselves to be unaffiliated with any religion.

It’s the economy, stupid

Overall, millennial voters tend to vote Democratic in general elections. The Pew study found that 51% plan to vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate in their district in November while only 37% plan to vote Republican. The number of who identify themselves as Republican/Lean Republican has also risen since 2007 from 30% to 35%, while the number of who identify themselves as Democrats/Lean Democrat has dropped by the same amount. Yet these voters are trending Republican, as only one in three (33%) planned to vote Republican in 2006.

A large part of this can be attributed to their preference for fiscal conservatism and the current state of the economy. In a study conducted by USA Today in October of 2008, 50% of all Millennial voters said that the most important issue in deciding who to vote for that November was the economic crisis, and four in ten (39%) were most worried about the rise in unemployment. My firm’s polling over the past year has found that this is still true, as nearly all of our federal and statewide polls have demonstrated that this is the most important issue to them as well. This also explains to some degree why made up the largest chuck of “Paulites”—supporters of Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul in 2008 and potentially in 2012. Paul, and subsequently his son Rand—who is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Kentucky this year—made a name for himself as being a libertarian Republican who advocates for a smaller government and less government regulation of the financial markets. They are also the most likely (44%) out of all generations to believe that the private businesses make a fair amount of profits and are not too powerful, further proving their capitalistic nature.

So what really matters to millennial voters?

At the polling firm that I work for we use a proprietary tool called the “Values Centered Issue Analysis” (or VCIA for short) that helps us have a better idea of the motivations and thought process of voters as they consider the most important issues to them in the upcoming elections. Looking specifically at the responses of voters 18-34 from studies conducted in a variety of Congressional Districts throughout the United States, we discovered that the economy and unemployment is still the largest concern to them and what they would like to see fixed first. Millennial voters want to see the economy improve because they are worried about their friends (and in some cases, themselves) who are unemployed and struggling to make ends meet, and how this is having a negative impact on their communities. They would like to see the economy improve so that they can have better financial futures as they start their families and enter middle-age. Millennial voters are also very concerned with the fact that they believe the Federal Government has failed them in recent years, and helped contribute to the current economic situation. Again this impacts their communities and thus, in their minds, having a government that works for them will not only improve the economy but restore prosperity to the country both in their minds and in the minds of the rest of the world.

Values-Centered Issue Analysis of Millennial Voters

What to say to Millennial Voters this Fall

Winning over Millennial voters in the polls is possible if campaigns focus on a few different things. First, the more a campaign connects with millennial voters through the Internet, the more likely they are to turn these voters into both supporters and volunteers. One note of caution is that they should not push a large focus on fundraising with these voters—considering the economic state of the country and the high numbers of unemployment among, the last thing a Millennial voter wants to hear from a candidate is “Would you be willing to donate to my campaign?” Republican candidates should also target the younger voter with a message about improving the economy and working to decrease the unemployment rate nationwide, as that is by far their biggest concern and the issue that will likely make or break their support for you in November.  Reminding these voters that you would like to see the economy improve will also help them become more optimistic about their own individual lives and the lives of their families, friends and communities. And if all these steps are followed, the millennial vote should be winnable by the GOP in November.

“David Cameron endorses criminal graffiti vandal?” A conversation with Ben Eine

Our very own Anikka had the chance to chat to Eine – the artist behind the grafitti artwork given to the Obamas by the Camerons.

A little taster – Eine on Cameron and Obama:

I think Obama is quite understanding, and probably has a bit of an understanding about street art, and I think he probably liked it a bit. So the fact that it was going to wind up there, and I was pretty sure that he was actually going to look at it, open it and enjoy it was one of the reasons why I said ‘yes’. So it’s Obama that’s cool, not Cameron.

Check out the full interview on Art Net

Constrictions on the rising International Class: the case of Kinnock

By Tal-Anna Szlenski

As reported by the Daily Telegraph, Stephen Kinnock, the son of a certain Neil Kinnock, is facing scrutiny regarding his taxes in Denmark.

Why is this interesting? Well, not only is Kinnock the son of a former Labour leader, he is also the husband of Danish opposition and Social Democrat leader, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. Kinnock’s international career path sees him splitting his time between his work abroad and the family home in Copenhagen whilst owning property in London.

It is this un-orthodox, yet rising, way of navigating between multiple national bases that has placed the couple in a bit of a political tangle – some fearing it could cost his wife her prominent position as Danish prime minister in waiting.

It is alleged that the couple has declared varying information regarding Kinnock’s stays in Denmark for tax evasion purposes. The couple itself claims a genuine mistake was made and that their finances are otherwise handled appropriately and by the book. As for now, the Kinnock case has opened a can of worms as to where exactly he should be paying taxes, and not just how much.

Whilst the mainstream media is preoccupied with the aspect of power-greed by the political elite, another important issue  has foregone scrutiny: current failures to accommodate growing internationalism into existing state structures.

Now, I am not going to excuse Kinnock’s current tax mess. That is up to him, his lawyers and accountants to sort out. However the lack of clear-cut legislation on taxation matters (and more), applicable on a global scale, is peculiar. In a time when national economies and defense policies are increasingly intertwined, when corporations are no longer just international but transnational, and when an emerging and growing group of people lead a cosmopolitan existence in accordance to such developments, one would assume a supportive legislative framework to be available in order to drive this process further and more efficiently.  Unfortunately, it isn’t so.

As this case has managed to highlight, it seems rhetoric and discourse has overtaken reality when it comes to the actual extent of the globalization which is so often heralded on the international scene.

Observation: The Influx of the Wannabe Tories

By Tal-Anna Szlenski

Using an expression as ‘Wannabe Tory’ is a bit brash. It supposes that there is such a thing as a ‘Real Tory’. Having no place to judge the ranks and degrees of Toryness, this is exactly what I am going to do.

As such I have taken the liberty to comment upon a growing phenomenon, hereby dubbed the ‘Wannabe Tories’. This avid group of typically middle-class tweeters with a highly politicized agenda, have taken it upon themselves to reinforce a Tory image of in-your-face-wealth and exaggerated arrogance. Whilst Cameron is making embarrassing attempts to appear like any regular Dave, the Wannabe Tories seek to do just the opposite.

In gleeful tweets we hear about their newest Smythson organiser, Fortnum and Mason tea selection, BUPA membership, and latest trip to Annabel’s.

Devoid of depth, yet full of tasteless boasting and hot air, the Wannabe Tories are now nothing more than a bad caricature of themselves. The focus has shifted from minimal-state proponents to something resembling an attitude found amongst teenagers in the local Argos store, donning gold jewellery to show they ‘have’. Frankly the attitude reflected from both camps, Argoers or Wannabe Tories, is ‘cheap’ and ‘put-on-for-show’. 

In short, with the Wannabe Tories going to lengths to prove their worth as first-class-Tories, they relegate the Tory brand to nothing more than a wannabe state of being.